Post by Dex on May 12, 2020 11:00:28 GMT -5
Trump is getting trounced among the Haters
Trump is getting trounced among a crucial constituency: The haters
President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both.
Unlike in 2016, when a large group of voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke sharply for Trump, the opposite is happening now, according to public polling and private surveys conducted by Republicans and Democrats alike.
It's a significant and often underappreciated group of voters. Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.
Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.
“It’s a huge difference,” said Patrick Murray, who oversees the Monmouth poll. “That’s a group that if you don’t like either one of them, you will vote against the status quo. And in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton represented more of the status quo than Trump did. In this current election, the status quo is Donald Trump.”
Trump’s weakness with the electorate’s malcontents is a worrisome sign for Republicans. They now must not only bloody Biden but render him less palatable than an already-unpopular president. Biden has been a fixture in public life for decades — making it more difficult to alter public opinion of him — and he is viewed more favorably by voters than Clinton was in 2016.
“It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.”
In Pennsylvania — which Trump flipped in 2016, but where he now trails Biden — Nicholas recalled speaking to groups throughout the state in 2016 and invariably being asked, “How did we end up with two such terrible candidates for president?”
“People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” Nicholas said, rejecting Clinton as a de facto incumbent and instead taking their chances with Trump. “What’s different in 2020? He’s the incumbent. So, he’s the devil you know … That’s why those numbers have flipped so precipitously from ’16 to '20, and there’s nothing inherent you can do about that, because Trump is the incumbent.”
One prominent Republican pollster said it is “certainly a concern,” suggesting that “the campaign needs to put a lot more heat on Biden.”
more here
www.politico.com/news/2020/05/12/donald-trump-haters-joe-biden-clinton-244629
Trump is getting trounced among a crucial constituency: The haters
President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both.
Unlike in 2016, when a large group of voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke sharply for Trump, the opposite is happening now, according to public polling and private surveys conducted by Republicans and Democrats alike.
It's a significant and often underappreciated group of voters. Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.
Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.
“It’s a huge difference,” said Patrick Murray, who oversees the Monmouth poll. “That’s a group that if you don’t like either one of them, you will vote against the status quo. And in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton represented more of the status quo than Trump did. In this current election, the status quo is Donald Trump.”
Trump’s weakness with the electorate’s malcontents is a worrisome sign for Republicans. They now must not only bloody Biden but render him less palatable than an already-unpopular president. Biden has been a fixture in public life for decades — making it more difficult to alter public opinion of him — and he is viewed more favorably by voters than Clinton was in 2016.
“It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.”
In Pennsylvania — which Trump flipped in 2016, but where he now trails Biden — Nicholas recalled speaking to groups throughout the state in 2016 and invariably being asked, “How did we end up with two such terrible candidates for president?”
“People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” Nicholas said, rejecting Clinton as a de facto incumbent and instead taking their chances with Trump. “What’s different in 2020? He’s the incumbent. So, he’s the devil you know … That’s why those numbers have flipped so precipitously from ’16 to '20, and there’s nothing inherent you can do about that, because Trump is the incumbent.”
One prominent Republican pollster said it is “certainly a concern,” suggesting that “the campaign needs to put a lot more heat on Biden.”
more here
www.politico.com/news/2020/05/12/donald-trump-haters-joe-biden-clinton-244629