Post by Dex on Nov 2, 2016 9:35:48 GMT -5
Analysis: Hillary Clinton's Path to 270 Appears Unchanged
There's plenty of hand wringing and stomach churning in Democratic households this week as polls show the presidential race tightening in its final days — and the Hillary Clinton campaign is making a series of moves that some see as panicked desperation.
A week out from the election, the campaign has started running ads in Colorado and Virginia, states it long ago felt comfortable leaving, and went on air for the first time in other, bluer states like New Mexico.
Meanwhile, campaign officials have seemed unusually agitated in a series of press calls and statements responding to FBI Director James Comey's bombshell on Clinton's email server. And after pledging to close the race on a positive note, the campaign rolled out a tough new ad highlighting women who claim Trump sexually assaulted them, while reintroduced former beauty queen Alicia Machado.
"Make no mistake, they are in panic," Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show Monday.
But the reality is that Clinton's chances of winning 270 electoral votes have hardly changed from last week. While Democrats' agitation is palpable, it's driven more by anger than panic at what they see as unprecedented and appalling meddling by outside forces in the election.
FiveThirtyEight's election forecast still gives Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, while the New York Times' Upshot model gives her an 88 percent chance, and Princeton University's model pegs her likelihood at 97 percent.
Those numbers could fall, of course, as the impact of Comey's move is only just now being revealed in polls and early vote data. But so far, the effect has been marginal at most and muddled at least.
A panicking campaign would be moving money from one state to another, or pulling out of states entirely, but campaign officials say the blue state ads are more a product of surplus cash and a desire to help Democrats down-ballot.
Clinton has not changed her travel schedule and will still head Wednesday to Arizona, a red state aides believe they have an even shot of winning.
In the last 72 hours, the campaign raised $11.3 million in online donations, according to an aide, the most at any point since the Democratic National Convention.
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that while Clinton has multiple paths to 270 and a wide margin of error, Trump needs almost everything to go perfectly for him Tuesday in order to run the table of almost all of the key tossup states.
"If Hillary wins Florida, she'll be next president of the United States," Bill Clinton said while campaigning Tuesday in the state, which is essentially tied. The same is likely true for Ohio and North Carolina. And Clinton could still make it to the White House by losing both and instead winning Pennsylvania and one other state, like New Hampshire, two places where she has lead in every single poll since July.
more plus video
www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/analysis-hillary-clinton-s-path-270-appears-unchanged-n676581
There's plenty of hand wringing and stomach churning in Democratic households this week as polls show the presidential race tightening in its final days — and the Hillary Clinton campaign is making a series of moves that some see as panicked desperation.
A week out from the election, the campaign has started running ads in Colorado and Virginia, states it long ago felt comfortable leaving, and went on air for the first time in other, bluer states like New Mexico.
Meanwhile, campaign officials have seemed unusually agitated in a series of press calls and statements responding to FBI Director James Comey's bombshell on Clinton's email server. And after pledging to close the race on a positive note, the campaign rolled out a tough new ad highlighting women who claim Trump sexually assaulted them, while reintroduced former beauty queen Alicia Machado.
"Make no mistake, they are in panic," Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show Monday.
But the reality is that Clinton's chances of winning 270 electoral votes have hardly changed from last week. While Democrats' agitation is palpable, it's driven more by anger than panic at what they see as unprecedented and appalling meddling by outside forces in the election.
FiveThirtyEight's election forecast still gives Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, while the New York Times' Upshot model gives her an 88 percent chance, and Princeton University's model pegs her likelihood at 97 percent.
Those numbers could fall, of course, as the impact of Comey's move is only just now being revealed in polls and early vote data. But so far, the effect has been marginal at most and muddled at least.
A panicking campaign would be moving money from one state to another, or pulling out of states entirely, but campaign officials say the blue state ads are more a product of surplus cash and a desire to help Democrats down-ballot.
Clinton has not changed her travel schedule and will still head Wednesday to Arizona, a red state aides believe they have an even shot of winning.
In the last 72 hours, the campaign raised $11.3 million in online donations, according to an aide, the most at any point since the Democratic National Convention.
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that while Clinton has multiple paths to 270 and a wide margin of error, Trump needs almost everything to go perfectly for him Tuesday in order to run the table of almost all of the key tossup states.
"If Hillary wins Florida, she'll be next president of the United States," Bill Clinton said while campaigning Tuesday in the state, which is essentially tied. The same is likely true for Ohio and North Carolina. And Clinton could still make it to the White House by losing both and instead winning Pennsylvania and one other state, like New Hampshire, two places where she has lead in every single poll since July.
more plus video
www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/analysis-hillary-clinton-s-path-270-appears-unchanged-n676581
